UFC on FX II – Thiago Alves vs Martin Kampmann

When it comes to his actual skill, I think Alves is one of the best fighters of his weightclass. His recent resume doesn’t reflect that, in the last three years his record has been two wins and three losses. He beat John Howard and Papy Abedi, and lost to Rick Story, Jon Fitch and GSP. The last time he beat a guy that was highly regarded as a top 15 level fighter was Josh Koscheck in 2008.

Martin Kampmann has had a weird run as well. He’s beaten some really good fighters like Carlos Condit, Jacob Volkmann, Paulo Thiago, and Rick Story. Those are all tough fighters with great qualities. But he gets rocked by really aggressive guys, so he’s lost to Paul Daley via TKO (against the cage) and lost a hotly debated decision to Diego Sanchez in a classic brawl. He also lost another decision that was deemed controversial by most, a lackluster fight against Jake Shields.

In a way, Alves has the qualities to hurt Kampmann much more than the other way around. Alves hits with a lot of power, great kicks and knees. Alves is also an  underrated wrestler, but Kampmann is also a great grappler.  Kampmann has some great strikes as well, but he does leave himself open at times and I think Alves is good enough to take advantage of that. I think Alves is better than Sanchez, and if Alves gets Kampmann against the cage like Sanchez did, it’s going to be troubling for Kampmann. Whoever wins will get positioned to fight another top ten fighter at welterweight.